Climate change dynamics and mercury temporal trends in Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Barents Sea ecosystem.

The Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) is the world's northernmost stock of Atlantic cod and is of considerable ecological and economic importance. Northeast Arctic cod are widely distributed in the Barents Sea, an environment that supports a high degree of ecosystem resiliency and food web complexity. Here using 121 years of ocean temperature data (1900-2020), 41 years of sea ice extent information (1979-2020) and 27 years of total mercury (Hg) fillet concentration data (1994-2021, n = 1999, ≥71% Methyl Hg, n = 20) from the Barents Sea ecosystem, we evaluate the effects of climate change dynamics on Hg temporal trends in Northeast Arctic cod. We observed low and consistently stable, Hg concentrations (yearly, least-square means range = 0.022-0.037 mg/kg wet wt.) in length-normalized fish, with a slight decline in the most recent sampling periods despite a significant increase in Barents Sea temperature, and a sharp decline in regional sea ice extent. Overall, our data suggest that recent Arctic amplification of ocean temperature, "Atlantification," and other perturbations of the Barents Sea ecosystem, along with rapidly declining sea ice extent over the last ∼30 years did not translate into major increases or decreases in Hg bioaccumulation in Northeast Arctic cod. Our findings are consistent with similar long-term, temporal assessments of Atlantic cod inhabiting Oslofjord, Norway, and with recent investigations and empirical data for other marine apex predators. This demonstrates that Hg bioaccumulation is highly context specific, and some species may not be as sensitive to current climate change-contaminant interactions as currently thought. Fish Hg bioaccumulation-climate change relationships are highly complex and not uniform, and our data suggest that Hg temporal trends in marine apex predators can vary considerably within and among species, and geographically. Hg bioaccumulation regimes in biota are highly nuanced and likely driven by a suite of other factors such as local diets, sources of Hg, bioenergetics, toxicokinetic processing, and growth and metabolic rates of individuals and taxa, and inputs from anthropogenic activities at varying spatiotemporal scales. Collectively, these findings have important policy implications for global food security, the Minamata Convention on Mercury, and several relevant UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Fluctuating Atlantic inflows modulate Arctic atlantification.

Enhanced warm, salty subarctic inflows drive high-latitude atlantification, which weakens oceanic stratification, amplifies heat fluxes, and reduces sea ice. In this work, we show that the atmospheric Arctic Dipole (AD) associated with anticyclonic winds over North America and cyclonic winds over Eurasia modulates inflows from the North Atlantic across the Nordic Seas. The alternating AD phases create a "switchgear mechanism." From 2007 to 2021, this switchgear mechanism weakened northward inflows and enhanced sea-ice export across Fram Strait and increased inflows throughout the Barents Sea. By favoring stronger Arctic Ocean circulation, transferring freshwater into the Amerasian Basin, boosting stratification, and lowering oceanic heat fluxes there after 2007, AD+ contributed to slowing sea-ice loss. A transition to an AD- phase may accelerate the Arctic sea-ice decline, which would further change the Arctic climate system.

Under-ice observations by trawls and multi-frequency acoustics in the Central Arctic Ocean reveals abundance and composition of pelagic fauna.

The rapid ongoing changes in the Central Arctic Ocean call for baseline information on the pelagic fauna. However, sampling for motile organisms which easily escape vertically towed nets is challenging. Here, we report the species composition and catch weight of pelagic fishes and larger zooplankton from 12 trawl hauls conducted in ice covered waters in the Central Arctic Ocean beyond the continental slopes in late summer. Combined trawl catches with acoustics data revealed low amounts of fish and zooplankton from the advective influenced slope region in the Nansen Basin in the south to the ice-covered deep Amundsen Basin in the north. Both arctic and subarctic-boreal species, including the ones considered as Atlantic expatriate species were found all the way to 87.5o N. We found three fish species (Boreogadus saida, Benthosema glaciale and Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), but the catch was limited to only seven individuals. Euphausiids, amphipods and gelatinous zooplankton dominated the catch weight in the Nansen Basin in the mesopelagic communities. Euphausiids were almost absent in the Amundsen Basin with copepods, amphipods, chaetognaths and gelatinous zooplankton dominating. We postulate asymmetric conditions in the pelagic ecosystems of the western and eastern Eurasian Basin caused by ice and ocean circulation regimes.

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic.

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.

Productivity in the barents sea--response to recent climate variability.

The temporal and spatial dynamics of primary and secondary biomass/production in the Barents Sea since the late 1990s are examined using remote sensing data, observations and a coupled physical-biological model. Field observations of mesozooplankton biomass, and chlorophyll a data from transects (different seasons) and large-scale surveys (autumn) were used for validation of the remote sensing products and modeling results. The validation showed that satellite data are well suited to study temporal and spatial dynamics of chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea and that the model is an essential tool for secondary production estimates. Temperature, open water area, chlorophyll a, and zooplankton biomass show large interannual variations in the Barents Sea. The climatic variability is strongest in the northern and eastern parts. The moderate increase in net primary production evident in this study is likely an ecosystem response to changes in climate during the same period. Increased open water area and duration of open water season, which are related to elevated temperatures, appear to be the key drivers of the changes in annual net primary production that has occurred in the northern and eastern areas of this ecosystem. The temporal and spatial variability in zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled largely by predation pressure. In the southeastern Barents Sea, statistically significant linkages were observed between chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass, as well as between net primary production and fish biomass, indicating bottom-up trophic interactions in this region.

Synergies between climate and management for Atlantic cod fisheries at high latitudes.

The widespread depletion of commercially exploited marine living resources is often seen as a general failure of management and results in criticism of contemporary management procedures. When populations show dramatic and positive changes in population size, this invariably leads to questions about whether favorable climatic conditions or good management (or both) were responsible. The Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock has recently increased markedly and the spawning stock biomass is now at an unprecedented high. We identify the crucial social and environmental factors that made this unique growth possible. The relationship between vital rates of Barents Sea cod stock productivity (recruitment, growth, and mortality) and environment is investigated, followed by simulations of population size under different management scenarios. We show that the recent sustained reduction in fishing mortality, facilitated by the implementation of a "harvest control rule," was essential to the increase in population size. Simulations show that a drastic reduction in fishing mortality has resulted in a doubling of the total population biomass compared with that expected under the former management regime. However, management alone was not solely responsible. We document that prevailing climate, operating through several mechanistic links, positively reinforced management actions. Heightened temperature resulted in an increase in the extent of the suitable feeding area for Barents Sea cod, likely offering a release from density-dependent effects (for example, food competition and cannibalism) through prolonged overlap with prey and improved adult stock productivity. Management and climate may thus interact to give a positive outlook for exploited high-latitude marine resources.